Schedule
ID1 (9 out of 10 Seniors Recommend this Freshman Seminar: Statistics in the Real World)
TuTh 11-12:15, Millikan 211
email: jo.hardin@pomona.edu
Office Hours: W 1:30-3p, W 3-4p, F 9-11a
ID1 Intern: Erik Lykken
email: erik.lykken@pomona.edu
Office Hours:
Sun 2-3:30pm (SGM Science Library, 2nd floor)
Thurs 3:30-5pm (Writing Center, SCC, 2nd floor)
Week 1
9/3 No Class – Convocation
9/5 Introductory stuff, syllabus, webpage info
Randomness & Variability
Week 2
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▪ Lewis, M. Moneyball (e-reserve) ▪ James, B., Albert, J., and Stern, H. Answering questions about baseball using statistics” (e-reserve) ▪ Paulos, J.A. (1997). Darts trounce the pros. A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper. (Huntley) ▪ Paulos, J.A. (1997). Near perfect game for Roger Clemens. A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper. (Huntley) ▪ Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science, vol 185, pgs 1124-1131. (electronic journals) ▪ Utts, J. (2005). Psychological influences on personal probability. Seeing Through Statistics. (Huntley) ▪ Utts, J. (2005). When intuition differs from relative frequency. Seeing Through Statistics. (Huntley) ▪ ▪ Paulos, J.A. (1997). Asbestos removal closes NYC schools. A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper. (Huntley) ▪ Paulos, J.A. (1997). Harvard psychiatrist believes patient abducted by aliens. A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper. (Huntley) ▪ Paulos, J.A. (1997). 761 calories, 428 mgs. Sodium, 22.6 grams of fat per serving. A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper. (Huntley) ▪ Paulos, J.A. (1997). Stallone on worst-dressed list. A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper. (Huntley) |
J.B. Landers ©, from CAUSEweb.org |
9/11 Discussion
Due: Informal paper #1 (assignments)
Ecclesiastes 9.11
I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favor to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.
9/13 Discussion( Derek Schaible / Duncan Ariey )
Week 3
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▪ Calvino, I. How much shall we bet? Cosmicomics. (e-reserve) ▪ Bernstein, P. The failure of invariance. Against the Gods. (e-reserve) ▪ Maloney, R. Inflexible logic. (e-reserve) ▪ Stoppard, T. Rosencrantz & Guildenstern are Dead (e-reserve) ▪ Cole, K.C. Calculated risks. The Universe and the Teacup. (e-reserve) |
J.B. Landers ©, from CAUSEweb.org |
9/18 Discussion( Latoya Sanderson / Derek Schaible )
Due: Informal paper #2 (assignments)
9/20 Discussion( Matt Jevsevar / Wintaye Gebru )
Week 4
▪ Dostoevsky, F. The Gambler (Huntley)
▪ Borges, J.L. The
9/25 Discussion( RJ Maki / Gordon Cheng )
Due: Informal paper #3 (assignments)
9/27 Discussion( Matt Bush / Andrew Helmer )
9/28 FRIDAY, Due: Abstract, paper #1 (assignments)
Psephology
Week 5
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▪ Bernstein, P. The remarkable notions of the remarkable notions man. Against the Gods. (e-reserve) ▪ Utts, J., (2005) How to get a good sample. Seeing Through Statistics. (Huntley) ▪ Bryson, M. (1976). The Literary Digest Poll: making of a statistical myth”. The American Statistician, vol 30 (no 4), pages 184-185. (electronic journals) ▪ Huff, D. (1982). The sample with the built in bias. How to Lie with Statistics. (e-reserve) ▪
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J.B. Landers ©, from CAUSEweb.org |
10/1 MONDAY, Due: Abstract, paper #1 (assignments)
10/2 Discussion( Eben Perkins / Kate Brieger )
10/4 Magic Town & Pizza
10/5 FRIDAY, Due: First complete version, paper #1 (assignments)
Week 6
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Readings: ▪ Utts, J. (2005). Measurements, mistakes, and misunderstandings. Seeing Through Statistics. (Huntley) ▪ Harris, R., & Monaco, G. (1978). Psychology of pragmatic implicaton: information processing between the lines. Journal of Experimental Psychology, vol 107 (no 1), pages 1-22. (e-reserve) ▪ Gladwell, M. Blink, chapter 2.1 (e-reserve) ▪ Tracking public opinion is a delicate blend of science, art”, LA Times, 10/4/2005 (e-reserve) ▪ Paulos, J. A. (1997) Which way Mecca? A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper. (Huntley) ▪ Paulos, J. A. (1997) Iraqi death toll unknown. A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper. (Huntley) |
J.B. Landers ©, from CAUSEweb.org |
10/9 Discussion( Stella Chen / Matt Bush )
NPR story on Iraqi death count
Comments back on paper #1
10/11 Discussion( Charles Sander / Stella
Chen )
Due: hard copy of thesis + intro for paper #2 for peer review
Week 7
Readings:
▪ Grimshaw, S., Christensen, H., Magleby, D., Patterson, K. (2004). Twenty years of the Utah Colleges Exit Poll: learning by doing. Chance, vol 17,32-38. (e-reserve)
▪ Ratledge, E. (2006). The anatomy of a preelection poll. Statistics, a Guide to the Unknown (e-reserve)
▪ Kyle, S., Samuelson, D., Scheuren, F., & Vicinanza, N. (2007). Explaining discrepancies between official votes and exit polls in the 2004 presidential election. Chance, vol 20, pages 36-47. (e-reserve)
▪ Various newspaper articles / website printouts (e-reserve)
10/16 Discussion( Alex Sigoloff / Latoya Sanderson )
Due: Revised paper #1 (assignments)
10/18 Discussion( Glenn McFadden / RJ Maki )
Due: Informal paper #4 (assignments)
Statistical Diagnoses
Week 8
Readings:
▪ No readings this week
10/22 – No Class – Fall Break
10/24 Library Orientation
10/26 FRIDAY, Due: Abstract, paper #2 (assignments)
Week 9
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Readings: ▪ Senn, S. Dicing with Death, chapters 3, 6, 11 (e-reserve) ▪ Utts, J. (2005) Experiments and observational studies. Seeing Through Statistics. (Huntley) ▪ Flanagan-Hyde, P. (2006). Observational studies: the neglected stepchild in the family of data gathering. STATS, vol 46, pages 19-20. (e-reserve) ▪ Altman, D. The medical literature. Practical Statistics for Medical Research. (e-reserve) ▪ Scanlan, J. (2006). Can we actually measure health disparitites? Chance, vol 19 (number 2), pgs 47-51. (e-reserve) ▪ Most science studies appear to be tainted by sloppy analysis. The Wall Street Journal, September 14, 2007 (e-reserve) ▪ Ioannidis, J. (2005) Why most published research findings are false. Public Library of Science, Medicine, vol 2 (issue 8), e124. (electronic journals) ▪ Avorn, J. (September 16, 2006) . The sting of ignorance. The New York Times. (Lexis-Nexis) ▪ Switzer, S. and Horton, N. (2007). What your doctor should know about statistics (but perhaps doesn’t…). Chance, vol 20 (number 1), pages 17-21. (e-reserve) ▪ Paulos, J.A. (1997) Ranking health risks: experts and laymen differ. A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper. (Huntley) |
J.B. Landers ©, from CAUSEweb.org |
10/29 MONDAY, Due: comments on abstracts #2 (assignments)
10/30 Discussion( Erik Lykken )
Due: Informal paper #5 (assignments)
11/1 Discussion( Kate Brieger / Eben Perkins )
11/2 FRIDAY, Due: first complete version paper #2 (assignments)
Week 10
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Readings: Tuesday 11/6 -- Win, Lose, or Therapy: ▪ Utts, J. (2005). Relationships Between Categorical Variables (12.1-12.3). Seeing Through Statistics. (Huntley) AND Primary Readings about HRT: Two of the following articles (I will assign each person their 2 articles! All are available via the electronic journals.): ▪ Bain, Willett, Hennekens, Rosner, Belanger, Speizer (1981) “Use of postmenopausal hormones and risk of myocardial infarction”, Circulation, vol 64, pages 42-46. ▪ Hsia, Manson, Kuller, Pettinger, Choe, Langer, Limacher, Oberman, Ockene, O’Sullivan, Robinson (2006) “Impact of Cyclooxygenase Inhibitors in the Women’s Health Initiative Hormone Trials: secondary analysis of a randomized trial,” PLOS Clinical Trials, vol 1, pages e26. ▪ Hulley, Grady, Bush, Furberg, Herrington, Riggs, Vittinghoff (1998) “Randomized Trial of Estrogen Plus Progestin for Secondary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease in Postmenopausal Women”, JAMA, vol 280, pages 605-613. ▪ Grodstein, Manson, Stampfer (2001) “Postmenopausal Hormone Use and Secondary Prevention of Coronary Events in the Nurses’ Health Study”, Annals of Internal Medicine, vol 135, pages 1-8. Thursday 11/8 – Secondary Readings about HRT: ▪ Taubes, G. (September 16, 2007). Do we really know what makes us healthy? The New York Times. (e-reserve) ▪ Abramson, J. (2005). A Case in Point: the Saga of Hormone Replacement Therapy. Overdo$ed America. (e-reserve) ▪ Kolata, G. (April 22, 2003). Hormone studies: what went wrong? The New York Times. (e-reserve) ▪ Rossouw, J. (1996). Estrogens for prevention of coronary heart disease. Circulation, vol 94, pages 2982-2985. (electronic journals) ▪ Stefanick, Cochrane, Hsia, Barad, Liu,
Johnson. (2003). The Women’s Health Initiative
Postmenopausal Hormone Trials: overview and baseline characteristics of
participants. Annals of
Epidemiology, vol 13, pages
S78-S86. (electronic journals) |
J.B. Landers ©, from CAUSEweb.org |
11/6 Win, Lose, or Therapy
11/8 Discussion( Andrew Helmer / Alex Sigoloff )
Due: hard copy of thesis + paper #2 outline for peer review
Week 11
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Readings: ▪ Utts, J. (2005). Ethics in statistical studies. Seeing Through Statistics. (Huntley) ▪ Bruce, C. (2001). Three cases of good intentions. Conned Again Watson. (e-reserve) ▪ Abramson, J. (2005). Introduction & False and misleading: the misrepresentation of Celebrex and Vioxx. Overdo$ed America. (e-reserve) ▪ Lie, Emanuel, Grady. (2006). Circumcision and HIV prevention research: an ethical analysis. The Lancet, vol 368, pages 522-525. (electronic journals) ▪ Emanuel, Wendler, Grady. (2000). What makes clinical research ethical?, Journal of the American Medical Association, vol 283, pgs 2701-2711. (electronic journals) ▪ The Belmont Report (http://www.fda.gov/oc/ohrt/IRBS/belmont.html) ▪ Harris, J. (1975). The survival lottery. Philosophy, vol 50, pages 81-87. (e-reserve) ▪ Gottweis, H. Gene therapy and the public: a matter of trust. Gene Therapy, vol 9 (Issue 11), pages 667-669. (electronic journals) ▪ Collins, F. (May 27, 2004). The case for a US prospective cohort study of genes and environment. Nature, vol 429, pages 475-477. (electronic journals) ▪ Robert Ehrlich, Nine Crazy Ideas in Science, chapter 4 (e-reserve) (as an example for your research paper) |
J.B. Landers ©, from CAUSEweb.org |
11/13 Discussion( Duncan Ariey / Charles Sander )
Due: revised paper #2 (assignments)
11/14: Due: Informal paper #6 (assignments)
11/15 Discussion( Gordon Cheng / Matt Jevsevar )
Did O.J. Do It?
Week 12
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Readings: ▪ No Readings this week |
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11/20 12 Angry Men
11/21 WEDNESDAY, Due: topic & annotated bibliography for paper #3 (assignments)
11/22 – No Class – Thanksgiving
11/30 FRIDAY, Due: first complete version #3 (assignments)
Week 13
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Readings: ▪ Utts, J. (2005). Chapters 22, 23, 24. Seeing Through Statistics. (Huntley) ▪ Lucy, D. (2005). Introduction to Statistics for Forensic Scientists. Selected pages (e-reserve) ▪ Kaplan, M. and Kaplan, E. (2006). Judging. Chances Are…Adventures in Probability. (e-reserve) ▪ Cobb, G. and Gehlbach, S. (2006). Statistics in the courtroom. Statistics: a Guide to the Unknown. (e-reserve) ▪ Paulos, J. A. (1997) DNA fingers murdered. A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper. (Huntley) ▪ Paulos, J. A. (1997) FDA caught between opposing protesters. A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper. (Huntley) |
J.B. Landers ©, from CAUSEweb.org |
11/27 Discussion( Wintaye Gebru / Glenn McFadden )
11/29 Discussion( Matt Jevsevar / Gordon Cheng )
Week 14
Readings:
▪ Weir, B. (2006). DNA Fingerprinting. Statistics: a Guide to the Unknown. (e-reserve)
▪ Lee, H. and Tirnady, F.(2003). Chapters 1, 2, 3, 10, 11. Blood Evidence. (amazon.com)
▪ The power of DNA evidence. (1995, May 28). The New York Times. Section 4, page 10. (Lexis-Nexis)
▪ Weir, B. (1995). DNA statistics in the Simpson matter. Nature Genetics, vol 11, pages 365-368. (electronic journals)
12/4 Discussion( Derek Schaible / Latoya Sanderson )
12/6 Discussion( Duncan Ariey / Stella Chen )
12/7 FRIDAY 5pm Due: Moderately formal paper #1 (assignments)
Week 15
Readings:
▪ Koehler, J.J., (1997) One in millions, billions, and trillions: Lessons from People v. Collins (1968) for People v. Simpson (1995)”, Journal of Legal Education, 47, 214-223. URL is: http://www.heinonline.org/HOL/PDF?handle=hein.journals/jled47&id=224&print=section§ion=27&ext=.pdf
12/11
(W 12/12 – Last Day of Classes)
12/12 WEDNESDAY 5pm, Due: Moderately formal paper #2 (assignments)
F 12/14 noon : Due: revised paper #3 (assignments)