Schedule

 

 

ID1 (9 out of 10 Seniors Recommend this Freshman Seminar: Statistics in the Real World)

Pomona College -- Fall 2006

TuTh 11-12:15, Millikan 211

email: jo.hardin@pomona.edu

Office Hours: Mon 1:30-3pm, Wed 1-2:30pm

 

 

Week 1

8/29     No Class – Convocation

8/31     Introductory stuff, syllabus, webpage info

Randomness & Variability

 

Week 2

Readings:

▪ Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, (1974) “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases”.  Science.  Vol 185, pgs 1124-1131. (Electronic Journals)

▪ Michael Lewis, Moneyball (e-reserve)

▪ Bill James, Jim Albert, and Hall Stern, “Answering Questions about Baseball Using Statistics” (e-reserve)

▪ John Allen Paulos, A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper (Huntley)

“Darts Trounce the Pros”

“Asbestos Removal Closes NYC Schools”

“Harvard Psychiatrist Believes Patient Abducted by Aliens”

“761 Calories, 428 Mgs. Sodium, 22.6 Grams of Fat per Serving”

“Near Perfect Game for Roger Clemens”

“Stallone on Worst-Dressed List”        

 

 

9/5       Discussion

 

            Ecclesiastes 9.11

 

I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favor to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.

           

9/7       Discussion ( Eliot Chang / Abha Parekh )

            Due: Informal paper #1 (assignments)

Week 3

Readings:

▪ Jessica Utts, Seeing Through Statistics, chapters 17 & 18 (“Psychological Influences on Personal Probability” and “When Intuition Differs from Relative Frequency”) (e-reserve)

▪ Ian Hacking, An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic chapters 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 11(Huntley)

▪ Peter Bernstein, Against the Gods, chapter 16 (“The Failure of Invariance”) (e-reserve)  

▪ Russell Maloney, “Inflexible Logic” (e-reserve)

▪ Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz & Guildenstern are Dead (e-reserve)

 

 

 

 

9/12     Discussion ( Ben Conway / Katie Pirnack)

 

9/14     Discussion ( Nathan Dean / Eliot Chang )

            Due: Informal paper #2 (assignments)

Week 4

Readings:

▪ Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Gambler (Huntley)

▪ K.C. Cole, The Universe and the Teacup, chapter 3 (“Calculated Risks”) (e-reserve)

▪ Jorge Luis Borges, “The Babylon Lottery” (in Ficciones) (e-reserve)                   

 

 

9/19     Discussion ( Dawn Bickett / Molly McDermott)

 

9/21     Discussion ( Abha Parekh / Olivia Muesse)

 

9/22 (Friday) Due: 1st formal paper abstract (turn in via moodle) (assignments)

 

Psephology

 

Week 5

Readings:

▪ Jessica Utts, Seeing Through Statistics, chapter 4 (“How to Get a Good Sample”) (e-reserve)

▪ Maurice Bryson, (1976) “The Literary Digest Poll: Making of a Statistical Myth”. The American Statistician, vol 30, No 4, pages 184-185. (electronic journals)

▪ Darrell Huff, How to Lie with Statistics chapter 1 (“The Sample with the Built in Bias”) (e-reserve)

▪ Ian Hacking, An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic chapter 19 (“Confidence and Inductive Behavior”) (Huntley)

 

 

9/25 (Monday) Due: comments on at least 3 abstracts (comment via moodle) (assignments)

 

9/26     Library Orientation

9/28     Discussion ( Kazandra De La Torre / RJ Hinojosa )

 

9/29 (Friday) Due: 1st formal paper: final version (turn in via email) (assignments)

 

Week 6

Readings:

▪ Jessica Utts, “Seeing Through Statistics”, chapter 3 (“Measurements, Mistakes, and Misunderstandings”) (handout)

▪ Richard Harris & Gregory Monaco, (1978) “Psychology of Pragmatic Implicaton: Information Processing Between the Lines.” Journal of Experimental Psychology, vol 107, No 1, pages 1-22. (at the library)

▪ Malcolm Gladwell, Blink, chapter 2.1 (e-reserve)

▪ “Tracking Public Opinion is a Delicate Blend of Science, Art”, LA Times, 10/4/2005 (handout)

▪ John Allen Paulos, A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper (Huntley)

“Which Way Mecca?”

 

▪ Magic Town (Jimmy Stewart, comedy)

                                                                                                                                                                                

 

10/3     Discussion ( Katie Pirnack / Vanessa Kemper)

            Due: Hand in 2 medical articles.  One from a peer-reviewed journal, the other from the mainstream media.

 

10/5     Magic Town & Pizza

            Due: Find a poll, give some background, and ask the remaining questions

 

Week 7

Readings:

▪ Peter Bernstein, Against the Gods, chapter 5 (“The Remarkable Notions of the Remarkable Notions Man”) (e-reserve)

▪ Edward Ratledge, “The Anatomy of a Preelection Poll”  (in Statistics, a Guide to the Unknown) (e-reserve)

▪ Michael Round, (2006) “Plus or Minus.” Equals: Mathematical and Scientific Excellence, vol 1, issue 1, pages 48-56. (handout)

▪ Various newspaper articles / website printouts (handout)

 

 

10/10   Discussion ( Daniela Carrillo / Nathan Dean)

            Due: 1st formal paper: revised version (turn in via email) (assignments)

 

10/12   Discussion ( Raymond Addante / Dawn Bickett )

            Due: 2nd formal paper abstract (turn in via moodle)

 

Statistical Diagnoses

 

Week 8

Readings:

▪ RA Fisher, The World of Mathematics, vol 3, chapter 6, “Mathematics of a Lady Tasting Tea” (e-reserve)

▪ Freedman, Pisani, Purves, Statistics chapters 1, 2 (e-reserve)

 

 

10/17 – No Class – Fall Break

 

10/16 (Monday) Due: comments on at least 3 abstracts (comment via moodle) (assignments)

10/19   Discussion ( Mitch Amsler / Ben Conway)

 

10/20 (Friday) Due: 2nd formal paper: final version

 

Week 9

Readings:

▪ Stephen Senn, Dicing with Death, chapters 3, 6, 11 (e-reserve)

▪ Colin Bruce, “Three Cases of Good Intentions” (in Conned Again Watson) (e-reserve)

▪ Michael Kaplan and Ellen Kaplan, Chances Are…, “Healing”, chapter 7 (e-reserve)

▪ John Allen Paulos, A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper (Huntley)

Ranking Health Risks: Experts and Laymen Differ

 

 

 

10/24   Discussion ( Natalie Lu / Daniela Carrillo)

 

 

10/26   Discussion ( Molly McDermott / Raymond Addante)

 

Week 10

Readings:

 

Tuesday 10/31:  Two of the following articles:

▪ Bain, Willett, Hennekens, Rosner, Belanger, Speizer (1981) “Use of postmenopausal hormones and risk of myocardial infarction”, Circulation, vol 64, pages 42-46.

▪ Chlebowski, Hendrix, Langer, Stefanick, Gass, Lane, Rodabough, Gilligan, Cyr, Thomson, Khandekar, Petrovitch, McTiernan, (2003), “Influence of Estrogen Plus Progestin on Breast Cancer and Mammography in Healthy Postmenopausal Women,” JAMA, vol 289, pages 3242-3253.

▪ Chen, Hankinson, Schnitt, Rosner, Holmes, Colditz (2004) “Association of Hormone Replacement Therapy to Estrogen and Progesterone Receptor Status in Invasive Breast Carcinoma” Cancer, vol 101, pages 1490-1500.

▪ Prentice, Langer, Stefanick, Howard, Pettinger, Anderson, Barad, Curb, Kotchen, Kuller, Limacher, Wactawski-Wende (2006) “Combined Analysis of Women’s Health Initiative Observational and Clinical Trial Data on Postmenopausal Hormone Treatment and Cardiovascular Disease”, American Journal of Epidemiology, vol 163, pages 589-599.

▪ Hulley, Grady, Bush, Furberg, Herrington, Riggs, Vittinghoff (1998) “Randomized Trial of Estrogen Plus Progestin for Secondary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease in Postmenopausal Women”, JAMA, vol 280, pages 605-613.

▪ Grodstein, Manson, Stampfer (2001) “Postmenopausal Hormone Use and Secondary Prevention of Coronary Events in the Nurses’ Health Study”, Annals of Internal Medicine, vol 135, pages 1-8.

 

Thursday 11/2;

 

▪ Robert Ehrlich, Eight Preposterous Propositions, chapter 10, HRT (e-reserve)

▪ Gina Kolata, “Hormone Studies: What Went Wrong?” New York Times April 22, 2003

▪ Jerry Avorn, “The Sting of Ignorance” New York Times September 16, 2006

▪ Jacques Rossouw (1996) “Estrogens for Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease” Circulation, vol 94, pages 2982-2985.

▪ Stefanick, Cochrane, Hsia, Barad, Liu, Johnson (2003) “The Women’s Health Initiative Postmenopausal Hormone Trials: Overview and Baseline Characteristics of Participants” Annals of Epidemiology, vol 13, pages S78-S86.          

 

 

 

10/31

            Due: 2nd formal paper: revised version

 

11/2     Discussion ( Vanessa Kemper / Mitch Amsler)

 

Week 11

Readings:

▪ “Study finds common knee surgery no better than placebo” (http://www.scienceblog.com/community/older/2002/G/20021072.html)

▪ Lie, Emanuel, Grady (2006) “Circumcision and HIV prevention research: an ethical analysis”, The Lancet, vol 368, pages 522-525. (electronic journals)

▪ Emanuel, Wendler, Grady (2000) “What makes Clinical Research Ethical?”, Journal of the American Medical Association, vol 283, pgs 2701-2711. (electronic journals)

▪ The Belmont Report (http://www.fda.gov/oc/ohrt/IRBS/belmont.html)

▪ Gene therapy articles (handout)

▪ Jessica Utts, “Seeing Through Statistics”, chapter 26 (“Ethics in Statistical Studies”) (handout)

 

▪ Robert Ehrlich, Nine Crazy Ideas in Science, chapter 4 (e-reserve)  (as an example for your research paper)

 

 

 

11/7     Discussion ( RJ Hinojosa / Kazandra De La Torre)

 

11/9     Discussion ( Olivia Muesse / Natalie Lu )

            Due: Informal writing on opinion versus evidence

 

Did O.J. Do It?

 

Week 12

Readings (for weeks 12, 13, 14, 15 – eventually these will be added to and split up):

▪ Ian Hacking, An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic chapters 18 & 19 again (Huntley)

▪ Jessica Utts, “Seeing Through Statistics”, chapters 22, 23, 24 (handout)

 

 

 

11/14   Discussion ( / Dani Carrillo )

            Due: Topic & annotated bibliography for research paper

 

11/16   Discussion (  / Molly McDermott)

 

Week 13

Readings:

▪ John Allen Paulos, A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper (Huntley)

“DNA Fingers Murdered”

“FDA Caught Between Opposing Protesters”

▪ George Cobb, Stephen Gehlbach, “Statistics in the Courtroom” (in Statistics: a Guide to the Unknown) (e-reserve)

▪ Michael Kaplan and Ellen Kaplan, Chances Are…, “Judging”, chapter 8 (e-reserve)

 

 

11/21   Discussion ( Mary deBoer )

 

Due Wednesday 11/22: First complete version of the research paper

 

11/23 – No Class – Thanksgiving

Week 14

Readings:

▪ Henry Lee & Frank Tirnady, Blood Evidence, chapters 1, 2, 3, 10, 11 (Amazon.com)

▪ Bruce Weir, “DNA Fingerprinting” (in Statistics: a Guide to the Unknown) (e-reserve)

▪ Editorial, “The Power of DNA Evidence”, New York Times, May 28, 1995, Section 4, page 10 (LexisNexis)

▪ Bruce Weir, (1995) “DNA Statistics in the Simpson Matter”, Nature Genetics, vol 11, pages 365-368. (electronic journals)

 

 

 

11/28   Discussion ( Vanessa Kemper / Mitch Amsler )

 

11/30   Discussion ( Nathan Dean / Katie Pirnack )

 

Week 15

 

12/5

 

W 12/6  Due: Final version of the research paper

 

(W 12/6 – Last Day of Classes)